A radiomics-based interpretable model to predict the pathological grade of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors

Objectives: To develop a computed tomography (CT) radiomics-based interpretable machine learning (ML) model to predict the pathological grade of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs) in a non-invasive manner.

Methods: Patients with pNETs who underwent contrast-enhanced abdominal CT between 2010 and 2022 were included in this retrospective study. Radiomics features were extracted, and five radiomics-based ML models, namely logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), XGBoost, and GaussianNB, were developed. The performance of these models was evaluated using a time-independent testing set, and metrics such as sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were calculated. The accuracy of the radiomics model was compared to that of needle biopsy. The Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) tool and the correlation between radiomics and biological features were employed to explore the interpretability of the model.

Results: A total of 122 patients (mean age: 50 ± 14 years; 53 male) were included in the training set, whereas 100 patients (mean age: 48 ± 13 years; 50 male) were included in the testing set. The AUCs for LR, SVM, RF, XGBoost, and GaussianNB were 0.758, 0.742, 0.779, 0.744, and 0.745, respectively, with corresponding accuracies of 73.0%, 70.0%, 77.0%, 71.9%, and 72.9%. The SHAP tool identified two features of the venous phase as the most significant, which showed significant differences among the Ki-67 index or mitotic count subgroups (p < 0.001).

Conclusions: An interpretable radiomics-based RF model can effectively differentiate between G1 and G2/3 of pNETs, demonstrating favorable interpretability.

Clinical relevance statement: The radiomics-based interpretable model developed in this study has significant clinical relevance as it offers a non-invasive method for assessing the pathological grade of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors and holds promise as an important complementary tool to traditional tissue biopsy.

Key points: • A radiomics-based interpretable model was developed to predict the pathological grade of pNETs and compared with preoperative needle biopsy in terms of accuracy. • The model, based on CT radiomics, demonstrated favorable interpretability. • The radiomics model holds potential as a valuable complementary technique to preoperative needle biopsy; however, it should not be considered a replacement for biopsy.